Methodology

What the numbers mean

Presaid verifies timing and completeness of statements. It does not verify skill, endorse authors, or provide investment advice.

The record is complete by construction

Every stamp in a stream carries a strictly increasing sequence number and a cryptographic link to the previous stamp, enforced by the database itself. Removing or rewriting a call would visibly break every later commitment. That is why profiles show a complete record mark instead of asking you to trust curation: selective disclosure is structurally impossible, which is the fraud this service exists to eliminate.

Two timestamps

Received is our server clock when the commitment arrived — provisional. Anchored is the block timestamp of the public-ledger transaction that contains the batch root — authoritative and independently checkable. Certificates always make their legal claim on the anchored time.

Outcome resolution

• Price outcomes resolve on a closing basis: the last recorded price at or before the deadline (at most 24 hours old) decides. “Touched intraday” does not count — one data point, objectively re-checkable, no wick ambiguity. Range bounds are inclusive.
• Attestor events (e.g. FDA decisions via CatalystAlert) are settled by a signed verdict from the named attestor; verdicts are append-only and public.
• Self-reported outcomes require a public evidence URL and are labeled as such everywhere — a lower trust tier by design.

Score definitions

• Closed outcomes = hits + misses + voids + expired-unrevealed.
• Hit rate = hits ÷ (hits + misses). Voids (cancelled events) and expired-unrevealed are excluded from the denominator but always displayed.
• Expired unrevealed: a sealed call whose author never revealed it before its deadline. It is not counted as a loss — but it is never hidden, because silence is information.
• Windows: results attribute to their resolution date, expiries to their deadline; “90d/30d” are rolling windows.
• Anchor age: time since the account's first on-ledger anchor. Long, complete history is the strongest signal on this site — shadow accounts have short ones.

Ordering on the records page

Rows sort by proven volume (resolved calls) first, then hit rate. We do not rank by returns, do not model skill, and do not endorse anyone. The ordering is a statistical convention, stated here so it can be criticized.

Verify everything yourself

Every certificate links a machine-readable proof bundle. The verification specification fits in a page; a verifier fits in ~40 lines of any language and needs nothing from us.