Author · statistical record
Dr. Nadia Perez
@nadia-perez-11zbv
Biotech + macro. PDUFA outcomes and market catalysts, stamped before the event. Every call public — hits and misses. Not investment advice.
founder complete record ✓
gapless by construction — every call, in order,
nothing removable, nothing hidden
Hit rate (all)64.3%
9 hits · 5 misses
Hit rate (90d)64.3%
9 hits · 5 misses
Closed outcomes14
0 void
Expired unrevealed0
counted, never hidden
Pending4
3 unresolved · 1 sealed
Anchor ageanchored today
since 2026-07-06
closed = hits + misses + voids · expired-unrevealed is counted and shown separately, never folded into closed outcomes or counted as a loss.
Streams
Operates 2 streams — the record above spans every stream, listed or not. Each stream is its own verifiable track record.
| Stream | Hit rate | Anchor age | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|
| PDUFA calls (biotech) | 71.4% · n=7 | anchored today | 7 |
| BTC macro (markets) | 57.1% · n=7 | anchored today | 7 |
Chronological record
| Nº | Stream | Claim | Status | Committed | Deadline | Resolved | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | BTC macro | Bitcoin still holds above $80,000 (no deep drawdown) at the deadline | Awaiting outcome | 2026-07-06 | 2027-01-02 | — | — | certificate |
| 9 | BTC macro | Ether reclaims $5,000 by the deadline | Awaiting outcome | 2026-07-06 | 2027-01-02 | — | — | certificate |
| 8 | BTC macro | Bitcoin trades at or above $150,000 by the deadline | Awaiting outcome | 2026-07-06 | 2027-01-02 | — | — | certificate |
| 8 | PDUFA calls | sealed — content not yet revealed | Sealed | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | — | — | certificate |
| 7 | PDUFA calls | Axsome's AXS-05 hits its primary endpoint in the Alzheimer's agitation Phase 3 | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 7 | BTC macro | A US Bitcoin strategic-reserve bill is signed into law this session | Miss | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 6 | BTC macro | The Federal Reserve delivers its first rate cut of the cycle by the July meeting | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 5 | BTC macro | US headline CPI prints below 3% year-over-year before summer | Miss | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 4 | BTC macro | MicroStrategy is added to the Nasdaq-100 index at the annual reconstitution | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 3 | BTC macro | The ETH/BTC ratio prints a fresh multi-year low during Q2 | Miss | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 2 | BTC macro | Spot Ether ETFs begin trading on US exchanges | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 1 | BTC macro | Bitcoin prints a daily close above $100,000 before year-end | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 6 | PDUFA calls | Novavax's updated COVID vaccine clears the FDA before September | Miss | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 5 | PDUFA calls | Intra-Cellular's ITI-1284 misses on its primary anxiety endpoint in Phase 2 | Miss | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 4 | PDUFA calls | Sarepta secures an expanded Elevidys label in Duchenne muscular dystrophy | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 3 | PDUFA calls | Cassava Sciences' simufilam fails its Phase 3 Alzheimer's endpoint | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 2 | PDUFA calls | Lykos' MDMA-assisted PTSD therapy draws a Complete Response Letter, not approval | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
| 1 | PDUFA calls | Eli Lilly's donanemab wins FDA approval for early Alzheimer's on schedule | Hit | 2026-07-06 | 2026-09-04 | 2026-07-06 | self-reported | certificate |
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